Thursday 24 September 2026 · Edition of the day

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The Skeptic's Daily

The day's biggest stories, taken apart. For each one: what is actually established, what is only asserted, the questions worth asking — and a plausibility score for the central claim, given everything currently known.

Stories
6
Average plausibility
84%
How to read the score
It rates how well the core claim is evidenced — not how important the story is, nor whether it is good or bad news.
RegionAllGlobalAfricaNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia-PacificEuropeMiddle East
TopicAllPoliticsConflict & SecurityBusinessScienceHealth
01BusinessGlobal

Federal Reserve raises rates to 3.75%–4% under new chair Warsh

The Fed's first hike in over three years signals persistent inflation concerns even as officials describe the economy as resilient.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on 16 September 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%–4%. New chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been 'too high for too long' and cited Middle East tensions and tariffs as contributing factors. Updated projections point to a possible further increase before year end. The decision comes weeks ahead of the US midterm elections.

What holds up

  • ✓The FOMC's official statement and vote count (12–0) are published by the Federal Reserve.
  • ✓The new rate range was reported consistently by Reuters, CNBC and the New York Times.

What doesn't yet

  • ?Whether the hike will meaningfully curb inflation, rather than reflecting political and geopolitical pressures, is interpretation, not settled fact.
  • ?How much tariffs versus the Middle East conflict drove inflation is disputed among economists.

Ask before you share

  • →Will the Fed proceed with another rise this year as projections suggest?
  • →How much of current inflation stems from tariffs versus energy-market disruption?
  • →Will further hikes test Warsh's independence from White House pressure ahead of the midterms?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]Federal Reserve · Published 16 Sept 2026 · federalreserve.gov
  2. [2]Reuters · Published 16 Sept 2026 · reuters.com
02ScienceGlobal

Astronomers identify the youngest known exoplanet, still forming in its birth disk

A planet under a million years old challenges existing models of how giant planets form.

A team led by researchers in Chile reported the discovery of Elias 2-24 b, described as the youngest confirmed exoplanet, using archival Keck Observatory data. The findings were published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. The Jupiter-mass planet appears to be actively accreting material from its host star's disk, complicating formation models that already struggled with previous record-holders around 5 million years old.

What holds up

  • ✓Publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters is confirmed via NASA Science's release.
  • ✓The data came from the W. M. Keck Observatory.

What doesn't yet

  • ?The age estimate relies on modeling assumptions the researchers acknowledge are imperfect.
  • ?Whether the object is a fully formed planet or a protoplanetary clump is still debated.

Ask before you share

  • →Will independent teams replicate the age estimate with different instruments?
  • →Does this favor core-accretion or disk-instability theories of planet formation?
  • →Could similar young planets be found around the other stars in the survey?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]NASA Science · Accessed 24 Sept 2026 · science.nasa.gov
03ScienceGlobal

Perseverance finds evidence of repeated water activity in Martian rock

Rocks in Jezero Crater's 'Margin Unit' appear to have interacted with water on at least three separate occasions.

NASA scientists reported on 21 September 2026 that data from the Perseverance rover's SuperCam instrument show an unexpectedly complex water history in Jezero Crater's Margin Unit. Researchers expected sedimentary rock but found igneous rock bearing chemical signatures of multiple encounters with water. The findings were published in Communications Earth & Environment.

What holds up

  • ✓The instrument readings and publication venue are confirmed by NASA's official release.
  • ✓The rover reached the Margin Unit in September 2023, a documented mission milestone.

What doesn't yet

  • ?Reading the record as three 'separate' episodes rather than one prolonged process is inference from indirect chemical data.
  • ?Implications for past habitability extrapolate beyond the direct findings.

Ask before you share

  • →Could a sample-return mission confirm this with laboratory analysis on Earth?
  • →What does this mean for Jezero's potential to preserve signs of past life?
  • →Are similar formations present elsewhere on Mars?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]NASA · Accessed 24 Sept 2026 · nasa.gov
04HealthGlobal

WHO issues new guidelines expanding contraceptive options

Extended-use pills, longer-lasting implants and mifepristone as emergency contraception are now recommended.

The World Health Organization published guidelines on 23 September 2026 recommending a broader range of contraceptive methods, including combined pills usable continuously for up to a year and implants effective for up to five years. It also recommends mifepristone as emergency contraception within five days of unprotected sex. WHO estimates 164 million women who want to avoid pregnancy are not using contraception.

What holds up

  • ✓The guideline publication and date are confirmed on WHO's website.
  • ✓The 164 million unmet-need figure is WHO's own estimate.

What doesn't yet

  • ?Safety and effectiveness claims for low-dose mifepristone rest on WHO's own evidence review.
  • ?Real-world rollout in low-resource settings is an aspiration, not a documented outcome.

Ask before you share

  • →How quickly will national health systems adopt the recommendations?
  • →Will regulators approve mifepristone for emergency contraception?
  • →What barriers — cost, stigma, supply — will limit uptake?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]WHO · Published 23 Sept 2026 · who.int
05PoliticsGlobal

Guterres warns 'cracks have become canyons' in his final General Assembly address

The outgoing UN chief named four defining tests: war, inequality, climate and AI.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the General Assembly that eroding norms have turned global fault lines into 'canyons'. He called for binding cooperation on AI governance and Security Council reform, including permanent African representation, saying superpowers alone cannot guarantee stability.

What holds up

  • ✓The speech opened the 81st session on 22 September, reported by UN News and The Guardian.
  • ✓He explicitly called for Council reform and permanent African seats.

What doesn't yet

  • ?His description of a historic power shift is interpretive framing.
  • ?The claim of full gender parity in UN senior leadership is self-reported.

Ask before you share

  • →Will anything concrete follow on Security Council reform?
  • →How will major powers respond to binding AI rules?
  • →Can the UN act on this given its funding pressures?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]UN News · Published 22 Sept 2026 · news.un.org
  2. [2]The Guardian · Published 22 Sept 2026 · theguardian.com
06Conflict & SecurityGlobal

Wars between states doubled in 2025 to a post-1945 high, conflict researchers report

PRIO's latest Conflict Trends data records eight interstate conflicts last year, twice the previous year's count.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo said on 22 September 2026 that its Conflict Trends report, drawing on Uppsala Conflict Data Program figures, recorded eight interstate conflicts in 2025 — double the year before and the highest since the Second World War. The authors argue this reflects a structural erosion of the international order rather than a temporary spike, citing Ukraine, overlapping Middle East fronts and India–Pakistan tensions.

What holds up

  • ✓The figures come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a long-running academic dataset.
  • ✓The broader rise is consistent with the Global Peace Index 2026, which also reports conflict at a post-war high.

What doesn't yet

  • ?Calling the rise 'structural' rather than a spike is the authors' interpretation.
  • ?Counts depend on how a conflict is defined and coded; other datasets use different thresholds.

Ask before you share

  • →Would the trend look the same under another dataset's definitions?
  • →Are a few large wars driving the count, or is conflict genuinely spreading?
  • →What would reverse it — and is any institution positioned to try?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]PRIO · Published 22 Sept 2026 · prio.org
  2. [2]Global Peace Index 2026 (IEP) · Accessed 24 Sept 2026 · economicsandpeace.org