Thursday 24 September 2026 · Edition of the day

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The Skeptic's Daily

The day's biggest stories, taken apart. For each one: what is actually established, what is only asserted, the questions worth asking — and a plausibility score for the central claim, given everything currently known.

Stories
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Average plausibility
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It rates how well the core claim is evidenced — not how important the story is, nor whether it is good or bad news.
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01Conflict & SecurityGlobal

Wars between states doubled in 2025 to a post-1945 high, conflict researchers report

PRIO's latest Conflict Trends data records eight interstate conflicts last year, twice the previous year's count.

The Peace Research Institute Oslo said on 22 September 2026 that its Conflict Trends report, drawing on Uppsala Conflict Data Program figures, recorded eight interstate conflicts in 2025 — double the year before and the highest since the Second World War. The authors argue this reflects a structural erosion of the international order rather than a temporary spike, citing Ukraine, overlapping Middle East fronts and India–Pakistan tensions.

What holds up

  • ✓The figures come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a long-running academic dataset.
  • ✓The broader rise is consistent with the Global Peace Index 2026, which also reports conflict at a post-war high.

What doesn't yet

  • ?Calling the rise 'structural' rather than a spike is the authors' interpretation.
  • ?Counts depend on how a conflict is defined and coded; other datasets use different thresholds.

Ask before you share

  • →Would the trend look the same under another dataset's definitions?
  • →Are a few large wars driving the count, or is conflict genuinely spreading?
  • →What would reverse it — and is any institution positioned to try?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]PRIO · Published 22 Sept 2026 · prio.org
  2. [2]Global Peace Index 2026 (IEP) · Accessed 24 Sept 2026 · economicsandpeace.org