Wednesday 21 October 2026 · Edition of the day

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The Skeptic's Daily

The day's biggest stories, taken apart. For each one: what is actually established, what is only asserted, the questions worth asking — and a plausibility score for the central claim, given everything currently known.

Stories
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Average plausibility
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01BusinessAsia-Pacific

RBA deputy warns of worsening inflation outlook

The Guardian reports increased expectations of a fifth rate rise this year, not an announced policy decision.

The Guardian reports that RBA deputy Andrew Hauser has warned that the inflation outlook is worsening. He describes hard choices in balancing the risk of entrenched inflation against protecting the labour market. The headline says the odds of a fifth interest-rate rise this year have shortened.

What holds up

  • ✓The extract attributes the inflation warning to the RBA deputy by name.
  • ✓It describes the policy trade-off he identified, rather than reporting a new rate decision.

What doesn't yet

  • ?No speech transcript, inflation figures or independent report is supplied.
  • ?The extract does not quantify the change in rate-rise expectations or identify how those odds were measured.

Ask before you share

  • →What data underpin the warning about the inflation outlook?
  • →Are the reported odds based on market pricing, economist forecasts or another measure?

Sources & original reporting

  1. [1]The Guardian · Published 21 Oct 2026 · theguardian.com